Arryo regime brought Philippines deeper into crisis

MANILA — The Arroyo administration is, hopefully, about to end its term by the middle of next year. Lasting for nine years and a half, it is the longest-running presidency since the Marcos dictatorship. In fact, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is second only to Ferdinand E. Marcos who, for 20 years, held the reins of power the longest in the country’s history. But the similarities between the Marcos dictatorship and the Arroyo government do not end with them having the longest terms.
They both grabbed power when the country, and the world, was in deep economic crisis. By Marcos’s second term, in 1969, the world was moving toward a deep economic crisis, which resulted in the US being the world’s biggest debtor from being its biggest creditor. The value of the dollar plunged, thereby causing the devaluation of all currencies tied to it, such as the Philippine peso. The turn of the decade signaled a shift from the World War II-era Keynesian economics to neoliberal economics, or what we now call globalization, which is actually a drive to fully open up the economies of underdeveloped countries to foreign trade and investments. This pushed the Philippines deeper into economic crisis such that Marcos had to declare martial law to keep himself in power because the Filipino people’s protest actions were intensifying since the “First Quarter storm” of 1970. At the same time, the contradictions between the ruling elite was also worsening with the opposition led by the late senator Benigno Aquino Jr. and erstwhile Marcos ally, the late vice president Fernando Lopez, denouncing Marcos and his corrupt practices.
When Arroyo was catapulted to power via People Power II in 2001, the world was also being rocked by a crisis. The US, which until March 2000 was the only country that seemingly was shielded from the crisis, was already reeling from the bursting of the “high-tech or dot-com bubble.” The Filipino people, already feeling the effects of the crisis, were moved to action because of former president Joseph Estrada’s brazen display of profligacy amid the worsening poverty. The ruling elite was also hopelessly divided, with Arroyo, who was then vice-president, joining the opposition a few months before Estrada’s ouster.
While both Marcos in the 1970s and Arroyo in 2001 promised to usher in a new government that would supposedly benefit the people, the Marcos and Arroyo regimes pushed the country deeper into crisis.
By the end of the Marcos dictatorship the country was deeply indebted, prices were skyrocketing, unemployment and poverty had reached new highs, and all institutions of government were warped by the unbridled power and corruption under martial law. “Never again to martial law” became the people’s rallying call.
Also, by the end of the dictatorship, the divisions within the ruling elite were even deeper as manifested by the series of coups d’ etat that the Aquino government had to face and the unprecedented number of presidential aspirants — seven — during the 1992 elections. Another sign of the worsening political and economic crisis then was the increasing strength of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front of the Philippines (CPP-NPA- NDFP).
Now that the Arroyo government is about to end (hopefully), prices have reached new highs in spite of the low inflation rates reported by the government; the country is experiencing the longest-running high unemployment and underemployment rates: as of July 2009, there are 4.3 million unemployed, 7 million underemployed, and 20.3 million either in “unpaid family work” (3.8 million), “own account” (12 million), and non-regular wage and salary workers (4.5 million); and the country is about to confront another round of fiscal crisis in 2010 with the deficit expected to reach P293 billion as per Finance Secretary Margarito Teves’s estimate. It could be remembered that the first fiscal crisis under the Arroyo government occurred in 2002 prompting Arroyo to promise, on Rizal Day, that she would not run again — a promise that she, of course, did not fulfill. Poverty has also worsened.
All institutions of government have likewise been warped by the impunity in corruption and bribery, electoral fraud, attacks on civil liberties and political killings. The Arroyo government has recorded the second highest number of extrajudicial killings at 1,118, second only to Marcos, and the third highest in enforced disappearances at 204. The Aquino government had the most number of enforced disappearances at more than 600 and the Marcos dictatorship second. However, only the Arroyo government has, as part of its counterinsurgency program Oplan Bantay Laya, clearly targeted legal political activists for “neutralization”. Marcos’s record of preemptively arresting leaders of activist organizations prior to planned protests actions pales in comparison to the Arroyo policy of subjecting all legal political activists to harassments, killings and abductions. The country may not be under martial law but it has become the most dangerous place for journalists. If the Arroyo government had its way — without the Filipino people protesting — civil liberties could have been severely constricted by now. She did try to experiment with martial law in Maguindanao but it was met by protests from a broad segment of society even as everybody feels the need for swift justice for the Amptuan massacre.
The divisions within the ruling elite have likewise deepened as manifested by the extreme isolation of the Arroyo government, the restlessness within the ranks of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and Philippine National Police (PNP), and the six-cornered fight for the presidency. The Ampatuan massacre has raised the level of barbarity in Philippine politics. Arroyo’s fear of stepping down from power — thus her attempts at charter change and her bid for a Congress seat — is also a manifestation that the contradictions within the ruling elite have sharpened so much that she no longer feels secure after May 2010. Also, the strength of the CPP-NPA-NDFP has continued to grow despite Arroyo’s desperate militarist efforts to put an “end to the insurgency.”
While it would take more than a change in president to effectively address the worsening economic and political crisis, if Arroyo and her minions are able to get away with keeping themselves in power — by declaring a failure of elections, martial law, or charter change — the Filipino people would sink faster and deeper into the quagmire of backwardness and poverty. (Bulatlat.com)

Philippine deficits and debts

MANILA, Philippines - Each Filipino now owes P47,039 to local and foreign creditors, based on the national government's total debt stock as of September.

A month before that, each of the 92.2 million Filipinos owed P45,889.

The culprit: the widening budget deficit that prompts the government to borrow some more. Additional debts, which address current funding needs but could be paid in the future, translate to more debt burden for future generations.

The fact that the Philippines has been spending more than it earns is not earthshaking. Even the richest of countries have budget gaps. But prudence dictates that this deficit, which is a fiscal policy issue, has to be manageable.

Already, there are concerns about how the Philippines is faring as far as fiscal discipline is concerned.

The Philippines blew past its P250-billion fiscal gap target for 2009, recording a deficit of P272.5 billion with one more month to go before the year ends.

If this year's experience is any guide, analysts believe the country's 2010 budget deficit will also breach the government's official target.

Forecast

Weak revenues—due to slower economic growth, several revenue-eroding laws, the negative impact of typhoons on tax collection, and lackluster privatization of assets—have been blamed for the wider-than-targeted deficit this year.

Except for privatization, which is expected to pick up steam, the same factors are seen to push the budget deficit above goal in 2010.

Despite the continued deterioration in the government's fiscal position, analysts at some of the biggest banking institutions say it's not as bad as it seems.

The government had set next year's budget deficit ceiling at P233.4 billion, but the country's economic managers are looking to increase this "to incorporate realistic assumptions."

They said more revenue-eroding measures that will take effect next year as well as the lingering economic downturn will take toll on the collections of the government's main tax agencies, the Bureau of Internal Revenue and Bureau of Customs.

The government is also expected to spend more for reconstruction efforts following back-to-back typhoons.

Taking these into account, Finance Secretary Margarito Teves said the actual 2010 deficit figure may hit close to P300 billion, the same as their "worst-case scenario" for the 2009 budget gap.

Teves' forecast is in line with analysts' consensus.

Not alone

Viewed in the context of the current economic crisis, financial experts say the country's swelling budget shortfall is not worrisome at all.

Unlike in 2004, when the poor fiscal state of the country was a product of the government's own hubris, the recent global crisis has made a large deficit more acceptable.

According to Metrobank head of research Marc Bautista, the country needs to incur a deficit to be able to sustain economic growth by curing sluggish demand through increased spending.

He noted that other countries are doing the same thing.

"There is room for deficit spending in 2010, the markets all but expect it already, and the Philippines is not alone in this predicament," Bautista said.

DBS strategist Philip Wee, for his part, said the widening budget gap has not really affected the strength of the Philippines , given the country's steadily rising external liquidity, and the peso's stability.

Fiscal consolidation

Nonetheless, the Philippines is eyeing to wipe out its budget deficit by 2013.

The country first targeted to balance the budget in 2008, but pushed this goal back to 2010 due to adverse external developments, including the rise in commodity prices and the onset of the global financial crisis. The 2010 goal was pushed further to 2013 to accommodate deficit spending for the economy.

As the country consolidates its fiscal position, Teves said that the government’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product will also drop to 46.1% by 2013 from the programmed 57.6% by end-2009.

Similarly, he said the consolidated public sector fiscal position—the combined fiscal positions of the government, state-owned agencies and government financial institutions—will post a surplus during that year.

In the end, the economic managers will be assessed on how they managed the country’s finances. After all, it is the future generations of Filipinos who will bear the burden of today’s folly. - Text and graphics by Judith Balea, abs-cbnNEWS.com; with reports from Business Mirror, The Philippine Star

Martial Law Proclamation 19592

Poll papers seized in raids

COMELEC ASKED TO TAKE HOLD OF AMPATUAN BALLOT DOCUMENTS

Poll papers seized in raids

By Angie M. Rosales

12/07/2009

Ballot boxes and other election paraphernalia were among those secured by raiding teams on properties owned by the Ampatuans to reinforce suspicions that the decision to impose martial law on Maguindanao province was also meant to seal off evidence on the massive fraud in the past two national elections in 2004 and 2007, opposition leaders said yesterday.

Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr. said he received information that election officials assigned to the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) have been ordered to examine and take custody of the poll documents.

Pimentel believed the documents are key to prove the rigging of results in the 2004 polls that enabled President Arroyo to win another six-year term as president and for administration candidates to sweep the senatorial race in the province in 2007.

“The Ampatuans have threatened that if the government would nail them down, they would reveal what really happened in the past two elections,” he said.

Pimentel said he was informed that during the series of raids conducted by the military and police forces, they discovered and confiscated ballot boxes containing election documents.

The senator urged the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to take custody of the ballot boxes and other election paraphernalia that the military obtained in a series of raids on sprawling properties of members of the Ampatuan clan along with caches of firearms and ammunition.

United Opposition (UNO) president and vice presidential bet Jejomar Binay added the martial law proclamation is likely a hunt for evidence of past election frauds.

Binay said great care is being taken to present martial law in Maguindanao as different from martial law in 1972. “It is a supposedly a smiling martial law, without the restrictions that are associated with martial law,” he said.

Arroyo signed Proclamation 1959 placing the entire province of Maguindanao

under martial law, citing the threat of rebellion in the province following the arrest of a scion of the powerful Ampatuan clan identified as the mastermind of the gruesome massacre of civilians –including women and journalists - in November.

Pimentel said it should be the Comelec officials in Manila that should scrutinize and take custody of these documents.

He suggested that a team from Comelec’s main office to be dispatched to Maguindanao and it should be led by lawyer Fernando Rafanan, head of the legal department.

Possibly, he said, one of the reasons for the declaration of martial rule in the province could be for the Arroyo administration to cover up the massive fraud in the province that marred the last two national elections.

Pimentel said he is worried that the election documents may be tampered with or destroyed because certain election officials in the ARMM were involved in the cheating operations in the 2004 and 2007 polls.

“Due to martial law, the public may not be able to know what is happening. The people are afraid to speak. Even journalists may not be able to report the truth because of threat to their lives. Warrantless arrest are being enforced and they can be picked up on order of martial law authorities,” he said.

Pimentel said he does not find any legal ground for declaring martial law as a means of going after the perpetrators of the November 23 massacre that resulted in the murder of 57 civilians.

He argued that the conditions laid down by the Constitution for imposing martial law were not present in Maguindanao, specifically the threat of rebellion and invasion by an external force.

“What happened in Maguindanao was that members of the Mangudadatu family and their companions, including lawyers and journalists were ambushed, abducted and massacred. Where is rebellion there?” the senator from Mindanao said.

Pimentel said even military commanders dispatched to Maguindanao reported that while they were able to confiscate huge cache of firearms and ammunition from the weapons arsenal of the Ampatuans, they saw no indication that these political warlords and their followers were attempting to fight back.

“Clearly, there is no basis for the claim that there is a threat of rebellion from the Ampatuans. May be this is just a gimmick to say there is a ground for martial law. But as I see it, this is just a ploy to hide the evidence of massive cheating in the last elections,” he said.

Pimentel said he and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile have agreed that the Senate will first meet at 9 am today to discuss Arroyo’s martial law proclamation.

He said the Senate will also hold a joint session with the House of Representatives tomorrow at the Batasang Pambansa building in Quezon City also to take up Proclamation 1959 that imposed military rule on Maguindanao.

The President is required to report to Congress within 48 hours from the time she declared martial law. The President may appear personally before the legislature or submit a written report.

If Congress finds no justification for the martial law declaration, it can overturn the President’s action and she could not veto it, the senator said.

He said that while the Constitution prescribes a 60 day period for the effectivity of martial law, it can be shortened if warranted by circumstances.

Pimentel said the Senate is likely to vote against the martial law declaration if it is not convinced of the grounds cited by the Chief Executive. But he said the voting at the House may turn out to be different because it is dominated Mrs. Arroyo’s legislative allies.

Binay said the various conditions cited by Palace officials for justifying the declaration of martial law in the province have been disputed by the Supreme Court and known legal luminaries.

“The claim that there is a state of rebellion is factually doubtful since the mere sighting of armed men does not constitute rebellion. And the Supreme Court itself had denied government’s claim that the courts in Maguindanao are not functioning,” Binay said.

With the factual basis and legal basis for the declaration of martial law in doubt, Binay said the question arises as to the real motive behind the declaration of martial law in Maguindanao.

If the Ampatuans’ threat to expose the extensive cheating in the province during the 2004 presidential elections is proven true, Binay said the Arroyo administration is “committing another injustice to the victims of the Maguindanao massacre.”

“They are exploiting the nation’s outrage to cover up another serious crime, that of stealing the 2004 elections,” he said.

“It would now appear that the Arroyo administration is using the full might of the state – the Armed Forces, the police and all agencies of government - to recover original election returns or certificates of canvass reportedly in the possession of the Ampatuans,” he said.

“A state of martial law will allow the administration to conduct raids and searches without going through the courts,” he added.

Maguindanao has long been considered an administration bailiwick, delivering the votes for Mrs. Arroyo in the 2004 presidential elections over opposition bet Fernando Poe Jr.

In the “Hello Garci” recordings, former election commissioner Virgilio Garcillano mentioned that “there would be no problem” for Arroyo in Maguindanao. DAILY TRIBUNE

Over 1,000 cops sacked, 400 militiamen disarmed in Maguindanao

Over a thousand policemen were sacked, while more than 400 members of the government's militiamen were disarmed a day after President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo signed a proclamation declaring martial law in Maguindanao province.

Chief Supt. Leonardo Espina, spokesman of the Philippine National Police (PNP), said in an interview with a television station on Saturday that a total of 1,092 policemen were relieved, while 429 members of the Civilian Volunteer Organization were disarmed in Maguindanao where 57 people were massacred almost two weeks ago.

Espina said that practically, the province's entire police force was dissolved and replaced by authorities from the PNP's mobile groups and special action force to ensure "effective police control of Maguindanao" and for an "impartial" probe of the November 23 grisly killings.

Likewise, total disarmament is being observed in the province, where permits and licenses to carry firearms have been suspended, according to Espina. - GMANews.TV

Full text: Arroyo's declaration of martial law in Maguindanao

Full text: Arroyo's declaration of martial law in Maguindanao



Proclamation 1959: Proclaiming a State of Martial Law and suspending the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus in the province of Maguindanao except for certain areas.

Whereas, Proclamation No. 1946 was issued on 24 November 2009 declaring a state of emergency in the provinces of Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat and the City of Cotabato for the purpose of preventing and suppressing lawless violence in the aforesaid areas.

Whereas, Sec. 18 Art. VII of the Constitution provides that “in case of invasion or rebellion, when public safety requires it, the President may, for a period not exceeding 60 days, suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law."

Whereas, Republic Act 6986 provides that “the crime of rebellion or insurrection is committed by rising publicly and taking arms against the government for the purpose of depriving the Chief Executive or the Legislature, wholly or partially, of any of their powers or
prerogatives."

Whereas, heavily armed groups in the province of Maguindanao have established positions to resist government troops thereby depriving the Executive of its powers and prerogatives to enforce the laws of the land to maintain public order and safety.

Whereas, the condition of peace and order in the province of Maguindanao has deteriorated to the extent that local judicial system and other government mechanisms in the province are not functioning; thus, endangering public safety.

Whereas, the implementing operational guidelines of the GRP-MILF agreement on the General Cessation of Hostilities dated 14 Nov. 1997 provides that the following is considered a prohibited hostile act: “establishment of checkpoints except those necessary for the GRP’s
enforcement and maintenance of peace and order and for the defense and security of the MILF in their identified areas as jointly determined by GRP and MILF."

Now, therefore I, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, President of the Republic of the Philippines, by virtue of the powers vested in me by the Constitution and by law, do hereby proclaim as follows:

Sec. 1: There is hereby declared a state of martial law in the
province of Maguindanao except for the identified areas of the Moro
Islamic Liberation Front as referred to in the implementing
operational guidelines of the GRP-MILF agreement on the General
Cessation of Hostilities.

Sec. 2: The privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall likewise be
suspended in the aforesaid area for the duration of the state of
martial law.

Done in the City of Manila this 4th day of December in the Year of Our
Lord, Two Thousand and Nine.


(Originally Signed)

Gloria M. Arroyo

By the President:

(Originally Signed)
Eduardo Ermita
Executive Secretary